Political Hot Spot

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

How Close are we to a Majority in '06?

Recently I've been focusing on who's going to run in '08. However, the '06 midterm elections are coming up much quicker and deserve some attention. I have heard constantly about gaining a Democratic majority, but I wasn't quite sure how close we were, so I did some homework.

SENATE:
(from Wikipedia: 2006 midterm elections) The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 liberal Independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.

To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need either a net gain of 6 seats (if independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jim Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House), or a net gain of 7 seats (if Sanders loses to a Republican). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.


Senate Seats up for election:
red - Republican incumbent
pink - Retiring Republican
blue - Democratic incumbent
light blue - Retiring Democrat
yellow - Retiring Independent
grey - States without a seat up for reelection

HOUSE:
from Wikipedia: 2006 midterm elections
All of the 435 seats in the House up are up for election.
The House is currently composed of 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats and 1 Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats).

Republicans hold a 30 seat advantage, so Democrats would need to pick up 16 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995. (This is a complete list of everyone running for election in the House.)

There are currently 30 open seats—28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies, both of which will be filled before the general election. Of the 28 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. One of the vacant seats which will be filled before the general election was held by a Republican and the other was held by a Democrat.

Here are some stats from the Washington Post on the House and Senate elections. The graphic won't post here, but it is very good, I'd definately recommend taking a look.

So, we're pretty close in the senate. The house, we still have a ways to go. Hopefully we can win both houses and start calling for reforms. However, Howard Dean has insisted, "I don't think that the first thing on our agenda is gonna be to get in a big partisan fight about whether the President should be impeached or not." Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi's spokesperson put it more bluntly, "Impeachment is off the table; she is not interested in pursuing it."

Hopefully they were just saying this. I would love to see a Democratic majority regardless, just to get the Republicans out of power. And I would love it even more if they impeached Bush.

9 Comments:

  • At 6/08/2006 02:20:00 AM, Blogger Dardin Soto said…

    Nice homework there GF. Its nice to know that some of you do all the legwork so I can just soak up the fruits of your hard labor :)
    I dig it... let me analize this some more and I will get back to ya'.....

     
  • At 6/08/2006 03:26:00 AM, Blogger The Future Was Yesterday said…

    Wow!! Now that's a complete post! Will "we" win? I think we'll get a few seats in each, but not a majority. Why? Bush's base is different than most Republican bases in the past. His are one and two issue religious lunatics who vote like lemmings when told to. Real Republicans are very educated, multi issue persons.

    For all the hooting and hollering you hear on the blogs and elsewhere, too many of us stay home. It will take a near %100 turnout to beat back the lemmings.

    And Pelosi, re "impeachment is off the table." That girl needs to be replaced with somebody that isn't bought and paid for.

     
  • At 6/08/2006 08:47:00 AM, Blogger billie said…

    majority by a hair is almost like having no majority at all. truth is- dems won't vote all of the time party line. the cross over more than the repubs- because up until recently- that is the way that congress works- compromise. typically when you have almost a 50-50 split in the senate and a close number in the house- people knew that they had to work together. not this current crop of repubs. now, the dems have their back up because they have been pushed around- so they vote party line. luckily some brave moderates on both sides are reaching out- getting slammed for it- but reaching out.

     
  • At 6/08/2006 09:27:00 AM, Blogger Obob said…

    brillant post, although the Democrats still won't get either House, they can build some big mo for 08. They dropped the culture of corruption ball and the death of z-man will galvanize Bush.
    I don't believe Pelosi/Dean, you can see them drool when it comes to "impeachment." They are politicians and will do what it takes to maintain power. The Republicans lie about wanting the wretched gay marrige ban, very embarrassed by them trying to pass it by they way, just pandering to get some base votes.

     
  • At 6/09/2006 12:12:00 AM, Blogger Human said…

    Really great work Ellie. This is a great reference for future use too.
    I will use it to see what races are worthy of support. I can tell all that Sen. Santorum is running about 23 points behind Dem.Casey(pro-lifer).
    So one should not waste support when the Dem is so far ahead.The Republicans spent a ton of money to elect Rep. Bilbray. Which makes it all the more important to target potentials.

    As an Indy who would like to see the Bush Regime Impeached, I hope for a Dem. Party led by others than Rep. Pelosi and Sen Reid.

    As you know the House Impeaches. The Senate is where the trial takes place.So only the House needs to be gained to impeach. If a dream team Gore/Feingold wins then Rep. Pelosi is most likely out.

    Just the discovery of evidence will do the Bush Regime damage. Yes, they will stay and fight in the Senate, but either verdict will be very damaging. While I hope for a Conviction in the Senate, one goal that is crucial to our Nation, will be the need to work from a clean slate. Both at home and Abroad. A political cleansing is required. If the Bush Regime is treated by the public as pariahs then we may actually address the paramount issues.

    Besides after the members of the Bush Regime leaves official office they are subject to Prosecution, almost like regular folk.



    I think this is the best chance to gain the house.The Republican owned machines will only have to steal a few elections to maintain power in the House. I don't think the Dems will win the Senate.

    Whatever our opinions on impeachment , it's not a horse race. It's more like a Ocean Race, and the ship has been battered by storms, navigated poorly and headed for the rocks.

     
  • At 6/09/2006 09:27:00 PM, Blogger Human said…

    Peace to you and yours scie-kid. Did ya just finish reading "Two Years Before The Mast"? :)

    I was assuming a modern driven ship. I was just deriding the term horse race because it is so much more important than that.

    I do like your expansion on the analogy.
    If I may add, the modern(fully industrial)crew compared to the old crew(largely rural) is so much better educated. Therefore the crew should have a more educated say.
    I'm waiting for that to happen.

    BTW - If you have never read 2 years before the mast, I think you would enjoy it. I think the authors name is Byron.
    Peace

     
  • At 6/10/2006 05:04:00 PM, Blogger Ellie said…

    truth-pain - can't wait for your input :)

    unhappy american - thanks! I miss the real republicans. Where have all of them gone?? and where did the Bush Republicans come from?? Hopefully we will get a good turnout, but I doubt it. Maybe people will be so disgusted with the war that they'll come out and vote democratic. I think that's being a little too optimistic though. and Pelosi should definately be replaced.

    betmo - true, majority by a hair is not that great...but it's better than a majority of Bush republicans.

    obob - I agree about gay marriage, they definately don't care about it. Most of them are probably against the ban even though they pretend to be for it. As for impeachment I hope you're right.

    human - thnks! lets hope they are impeached. that would be wonderful!!! and a Gore/feingold team would be great as well. The ideal future would be a Bush impeachment then '08 for Gore/Feingold to take over. Then they'd get rid of all the spineless Democrats and the Bush republicans and our country could get back to how it was before Bush/Bush 41/Reagan.

    scie-kid - interesting interpretation of the analogy. It wasn't nonsense, very good actually. So, true. Today things are so much more complicated than they were so long ago.

    human - people are definatley more educated today, however another factor is how much knowledge reaches them. The conservative media makes sure that the public doesn't get all of the facts. In China, even Google is censored. So, although people are more educated, censorship needs to be overcome. and yes, I'm waiting for the public to come out with an educated say. Maybe it'll be the call for Bush's impeachment. In my dreams... :)

     
  • At 6/12/2006 12:55:00 PM, Blogger Dardin Soto said…

    Ellie,
    Thanks for the kind thoughts while I was away caring for the Girlfriend :)
    I will comment on this much-belated posting today.. I am just now coming up for air!

     
  • At 6/12/2006 01:38:00 PM, Blogger Ellie said…

    take your time...believe me, I know how hectic life can be. :)

     

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